Photo by Razvan Chisu on Unsplash
Survivor bias is the logical error of concluding a likely outcome by concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process, and dismissing those that did not.
The classic example to explain survivor bias comes from World War II and Abraham Wald.
Researchers from the Center for Naval Analyses had conducted a study of the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions and recommended that armor be added to the areas that showed the MOST DAMAGE. Mr. Wald, a statistician, noted that the study only considered the aircraft that had survived their missions—the bombers that had been shot down were not present for the damage assessment. The holes in the returning aircraft, then, represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still return home safely. Wald proposed that the Navy reinforce areas where the returning aircraft were UNDAMAGED, since those were the areas that, if hit, would cause the plane to be lost.
Now, consider the effect of survivor bias on how you developed your career.
Like most people, you could recite a list of your strengths and weaknesses. However, perhaps that list has been skewed by your experiences. Were you promoted based upon your skill or attrition? Are you the manager because you have stayed at your current employer while others moved on? Can you attribute your current position to having SURVIVED? This is a hard question to answer, especially if the answer is “yes”, but consider the risk of lying to yourself.
I regularly see engineers promoted to engineering managers or top sales folks promoted to lead the sales team. Many times these employees are promoted not because they are trained and talented at management but because they have survived within their organization and, due to tenure, make a compelling case that they should get the job. Words like loyalty, sacrifice, and deserving start to get thrown around and they have no place in this conversation. This scenario can also be the result of well played politics. Again, something that should have no place. While senior leadership is accountable for making the decision to promote this individual, the individual is also culpable.
Maybe you are that individual. Maybe we are all that individual at some point in our career. The real risk comes when you leave the organization to pursue a new opportunity and relate your ability and success to what had allowed you to survive. You think that those are your skills and that if you continue to rely on them, they will yield the same outcome. The reality is that they won’t! Think back to those good employees that didn’t survive in your past organization. Perhaps they left because they were underutilized or that they wanted to develop more skills. Maybe they have since eclipsed your own professional achievements specifically because they didn’t survive in your organization.
To achieve our potential and to get the real benefit of pursuing our strengths, stop focusing on what allowed you to survive and think about what could make you thrive. What could you learn, what problems could you solve, and how can you test yourself? Get after it and stop asking to be paid for what you did. Stop relying on your stories of survivorship.
Written by: Austin Meyermann, Founder and President of Hunter Crown, LLC
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